Challenges to growth in cycling in the Netherlands. Older people cycle more than ever before but their injury rate is rising.

One graph can never show the multitude of factors behind the cycling modal share of a nation.

In this post, I'll point out how the usual chart which shows how cycling has grown in the Netherlands since the 1970s hides some major demographic factors which influence cycling, not all of them positive.

In addition, we've recently been told that for the first time in nearly ten years, cyclist deaths rose in the Netherlands last year compared with the year before. What's this all about, and is it somehow related to the modal share ? Read on...

First challenge: Immigration
Each year, the Netherlands loses about 30000 more people due to emigration than arrive as new immigrants. Many people who emigrate were born overseas and are returning to their land of birth, but also many Dutch people emigrate. This number, you'll notice, is smaller than that of births vs. deaths.

Nevertheless, by 2010, this exchange of people between countries resulted in 11% of people living in the Netherlands having been born in other countries. Because all other countries have a lower cycling modal share than the Netherlands, this of course implies that immigrants were born in countries where it is normal to cycle less than in the Netherlands.

Immigrants to the Netherlands try hard to integrate well with the local population and this includes their cycling habits. Immigrants living in the Netherlands cycle about as much as they would had they been born in and still lived in Finland or Germany. i.e. less on average than the native Dutch, but as much as people from other leading cycling nations. Clearly, though, we can't state that growth in cycling is due to immigration.

Second challenge: Ageing
Between the 1970s and now, the population of the Netherlands grew from 13 million to 16.5 million people. As we've seen, this is not due to immigration. It is also not due to a high birth rate. As is normal for developed nations, the Total Fertility Rate of the Netherlands (how many children are born on average to each woman) has been less than 2 for some time. In the Netherlands, the TFR has been less than two since 1973.

Births still outnumber deaths in the Netherlands by almost 50000 people per year, and this is what has lead to population growth. Deaths are lagging behind births because of the increase in life expectancy and resulting increase in the average age of the population. Men can now expect to live 7 years longer than in the early 1970s and women 5 years longer. Women still live slightly longer on average than do men.

Meeting these challenges
Neither older people nor recent immigrants from countries with lower cycling rates are the easiest people to convince to cycle.

Immigrants are encouraged to cycle. A successful initiative called Fiets Vriendinnen ("Cycling Girlfriends") is the only organisation that I'm aware of which cycle training for adults. Specifically, they offer cycle training and support for women new to the Netherlands, performing a useful function of helping people to integrate into Dutch society.

However, something else has happened which many people may find surprising. Elderly people in the Netherlands now cycle nearly three times as much as they did in the 1980s. It is the rise in the number of retired people cycling which has driven the growth in electric bicycle sales in the Netherlands.

A group of older people who passed us a couple of Sunday afternoons ago. It is not at all unusual to see groups of retired people cycling for pleasure in the countryside.

Other growth has come from specific areas. For instance, cycling to railway stations, where literally hundreds of thousands of extra cycle parking spaces have been built in an attempt to keep up with growth in usage in the last few years (40% of train passengers now arrive at railway stations by bicycle). Many Dutch towns have seen increases in cycling alongside improvements to infrastructure. This is true of the capital, Amsterdam, of the top cycling city in the Netherlands, Groningen, and also of the small town of Assen, where we live.

What about that rise in transport related deaths ?
Obviously any rise in deaths is something that has to be taken seriously. First some context. Overall, roads and cycle-paths in the Netherlands are amongst the safest in the world. They are much safer than they were in the early 1970s.

The improvement in safety have come in large part from following the principles of sustainable safety. Different modes are separated, keeping cyclists away from the danger from motorized vehicles even when you might not think this was happening.

While 2011 was a slight increase over 2010, this is clearly a
downward trend over time. It is not an imaginary trend.

Sadly, for the first time in several years, 2011 saw the number of deaths on Dutch roads increase. This has seen alarming commentary from some quarters about how the roads are becoming more dangerous, but I do not believe this to be the case. Rather, this is a bump on a graph which still depicts a downward trend. The rise was small, 3.3%, and 2011 was still safer than 2009. Perhaps the same sorts of comments concerning a "rise" were made when this last happened, in 2003.

In 2011, there were 661 deaths compared with 640 in 2010 (these figures are for all road users, not just cyclists). December 2011 was a particularly deadly month with 81 people losing their lives in that month alone. Without this unusual one month peak, the figures could have been lower than for 2010.

There is always "noise" in figures of this nature. It's important not to take too much notice of year on year changes as they can be so misleading. While one cannot make any prediction based on the graph, it looks more like the continuation of a steady downward trend than the beginning of an increasing trend, and we should note that the December figures which particularly made a difference last year are likely to be due to particularly unhelpful weather.

Demographics of road casualties
Of the 661 deaths last year, 40% or 269 were of people over the age of 65. Nearly 1 in five, 126 people, were aged over 80. This is a reflection of how active older people remain the Netherlands and also of how vulnerable older people can be in crashes which might cause less serious injuries in younger people.

We see the same if we look just at cycling casualties.

Over 65s cycle around 12% of the total kilometres cycled each year in the Netherlands. However, almost 2/3rds of the cyclists who died in the Netherlands last year were of people aged over 65.

In total, 200 cyclists died in the Netherlands last year, a rise of 38 over the year before. This is quite a sharp rise in one year. It compares with 185 in 2009, which makes for a less dramatic change. It is still part of a downward trend, and the Netherlands remains the safest country in the world for cyclists.

Why are older people falling victim more often ?
It is an unfortunate fact that as you get older, you also become more delicate. Injuries which might cause nothing more than a little discomfort when you are young can cause a broken bone when you are older. Those which might have resulted in a broken bone can result in death.

The rise in electric bicycles has been blamed for older people suffering more injuries and deaths. One study claims that while electric bikes are not much different in safety to non assisted bikes for younger people, there is a relationship between an assisted bike and a higher rate of injury amongst older people. Such bicycles are sold almost exclusively to retired people, and for this age-group they result in being able to ride faster and further than before, without improving the rider's reaction time or strength.

New figures from 2013 show that women over 60 with
electric assisted bikes (solid red line) are especially
at risk of injury. Two possible explanations are offered.
1. More fragile people tend to buy electric bikes.
2. Electric bikes lead to higher danger for this group
In either case, extra investigation is needed.

However, it would appear that the main reason why older people are falling victim more often is that they are cycling more often. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of kilometres ridden each year by over 65s more than doubled. Over 65s now cycle nearly three times so much as they did in the 1980s.

In the Netherlands, cycling suffers from the "Golf effect". Just as regular gentle exercise by cycling extends life-expectancy, golf has been shown to do the same. However, a surprisingly high number of people die of heart attacks when playing golf. It's not the game that kills them, as golf has few risks, however the combination of an aged demographic and that playing golf can take quite a long time means that there is a fair risk that regular players will die when they are playing golf. Many older Dutch people spend a considerable amount of time cycling, and the same will be observed.

None of this is new
In 2005, a study showed that the number of visits to hospital by older cyclists had risen by 55% between 2005 and 2009. The total distance cycled by this group had also risen by 50% over the same period.

In 2010, a study showed that elderly cyclists ran 3.2 times the risk of injury than younger cyclists, and that this was due not to having more crashes, but due to the relative fragility of older people. It also showed that 10% of total cycled kilometres in the Netherlands are ridden by the over 65s, and a link was shown (again) between improvements to cycling infrastructure, an increased rate of cycling, and lower risks for all cyclists.

What about the future ?

Average number of bike rides per day for Dutch
population separated into different age groups

It is expected that the ageing population will eventually reduce the cycling modal share because older people in the Netherlands cycle less than younger people.

In 2007, a study suggested that ageing of the population could be expected to slowly reduce the rate of cycling in the Netherlands. It also predicted a rise in serious bicycle crashes of 10% over 20 years for much the reasons that we have seen start to occur. This study also showed that immigration was thought unlikely to have a very large effect because the number of immigrants remains small.

That same study includes an interesting table which shows the percentage of cycle trips by over 65s in 2005 for each local government area, compared to what it is expected to be by 2025. In Assen, for example, 12% of cycle journeys were made by over 65s in 2005, and this is expected to grow to 16% of cycle journeys being made by over 65s in 2025. This is about average for the whole country.

Of course, the Netherlands isn't standing still. A new organisation, the National Investigation into Cycling Safety has begun to work on improving future safety for cyclists in the Netherlands.

It is important that standards for cycling infrastructure continue to improve. Only with improvements in standards can the cycling modal share be preserved despite the challenges of demographic change.

All three types of safety are important.

About comparing sensible figures
Last week, British politicians compared Dutch and British cycle safety figures in rather a confusing and perhaps even deceitful manner by referring only to the absolute number of deaths in both countries.

It is of course true that the Netherlands has a higher rate of cycling injury per hundred thousand people. However, this is because while everyone cycles in the Netherlands, and as we see above, this covers a very wide range of demographic groups, only a minority cycle in the UK and they're largely young adult males.

Comparing per km cycled, even though the Dutch cyclists include far higher levels of more vulnerable groups (not only older people, but also children and people with disabilities), the figures are very much better for the Netherlands than the UK, even taking into account the increase last year. Several people blogged about this, but I refer you to "(Drawing) rings around the world" for accurate figures.

Someone quipped that by the same logic as used by the British Transport Ministers, Switzerland could perhaps learn a lot from the UK's good record on skiing safety, and it's a valid comparison.

Any British politician who wants to know what the difference really is between cycling in the Netherlands and cycling in the UK only has to ask us to find out. We do tours specifically for this reason, but not one British politician has yet come to see for themselves.

2014 update
Traffic safety figures in the Netherlands have continued to improve despite the upward tick in 2011. The total number of deaths in 2012 was 650, roughly the same as 2011 but this improved in 2013 to 570. That's the lowest figure ever. 184 cyclists lost their lives in 2013, only five of whom were under 15 years old. 124 of the cyclist deaths were of people aged over 60. Over 2/3rds of the total and  continuing the trend of their being the most vulnerable people being injured in single-sided crashes.

Investigations into the cause of the rise in injuries and deaths continue. If the person who made the quip about skiing safety reads this, let me know and I'll link to you.

I cycle, so you could cycle too

Many existing cyclists in other countries make statements of the form "I cycle, so you could cycle too".

There's a lot of emphasis on riding "vehicularly", on gaining speed to get past junctions, on training people to avoid common problems. These are fine survival techniques in an environment which is hostile to cyclists, but they are not a way to make cycling a normal means of transport for the masses. Those with a desire to cycle, who are fearless enough and strong enough will continue to do so, while those who are more easily scared away from cycling will never start in such conditions. Cycling needs to be something other than an extreme sport to make the majority of people see it as something for themselves.

On the way home recently I found myself behind a rather elderly gentleman who was making his way slowly through a village near here by bike:

Explanatory video captions are displayed only if the video is played on a computer and not when played on a mobile device
You'll also see how children had met friends on the same cycle path. The infrastructure makes this possible. No-one has to be a "road warrior" to cycle. Parents don't worry about the safety of their children. Older people also see cycling as a perfectly reasonable way to get around.

Compare and contrast with this video made by someone who says "you can ride your kids to school" in Bristol:


It's laudable that this parent has taken great care in teaching his son to ride so safely as possible given the conditions. In the UK it's quite exceptional for an eight year old to cycle to school, even with a parent "just behind and out a bit to offer some protection and direction if needed" precisely because of the conditions in which this cycling would have to take place. Most parents simply don't feel that this is a safe thing to subject their children to. Meanwhile, just over the North Sea here in the Netherlands the average age for a child to go to school unaccompanied is about 8 and a half.

So what explains the difference ? The infrastructure ! Britain's streets are not subjectively safe. This is why attempts to train people to cycle are not working. It's also why in that second video you don't see other children cycling to school, older people cycling, nor indeed many other people riding bikes at all. It doesn't look much like any video of a Dutch school run by bicycle.

You are a member of a self selected group
Campaigners often ignore the reasons why they are cyclists while the majority of the population are not. It's very simple, those who cycle now in low cycling countries are by definition members of the easy demographic for cycling, made up largely of enthusiasts and relatively fit young adults, while those who do not cycle are from different demographic groups who are not naturally given to cycling especially if it involves risk.

Cyclists in most countries are an out-group. To change this, it's no good to say that conditions are OK for you. You need to reach the people who are not part of your group and you need to tackle the reasons why other people do not cycle.

We are here to help. Our cycling study tours
demonstrate how the Netherlands made
made attractive to the whole population

Different people have very different needs for safety, and in particular, subjective safety. People who are scared to cycle now, will remain scared to cycle unless conditions are made very much better, to grow the modal share past the usual easy demographics and to include people who are more difficult to attract to cycling requires not just a little more, but for the standard of facilities to increase exponentially.

Click for more on out-groups.

Queens Day recreational bike ride

Yesterday was Koninginneddag. It's a nice event, very sociable. Judy and I decided that instead of staying in Assen we'd go to the village of Vries this time, have a couple of beers at the cafes, listen to a friend's music, and take part in the cycle ride which one of the cafes had organised. This was 33 km long, to be taken at a fairly relaxed pace.

Judy riding through the "desert" a few km from Assen

People celebrating in the middle of no-where.

We stopped at a bench to eat our sandwiches. At the left end of the
bench is space for a tree to grow through.

The plaque on the bench reads "listen to nature". As this is a stiltegebied,
or "silent area", nature is all you can hear except for the sound of passing
cyclists.

It turned out to be a very good spot for people-watching.

So we made a video showing some of the other participants in the ride we were taking part in.

Many of the riders were quite elderly. Over 65s make a quarter of all their journeys by bike in the Netherlands. They don't only ride short distances to the shops and back, but also quite often go for tours in the countryside. Retired couples are often seen on matching "his and hers" bikes, and increasingly these days they'll buy electric bikes to make tours like this a little easier.

Some of the other riders on the same route

Teenagers going in the opposite direction

And of course there was also plenty of evidence of people at the opposite
 end of the age range also cycling today.

Who cycles in the Netherlands ? Everyone cycles in the Netherlands !

Average number of bicycle rides per person per day for the entire Dutch population for all seasons combined broken down by age and sex

To a first approximation, everyone cycles in the Netherlands. The graph above shows how cycling rates vary with age and sex within the Netherlands, expressed as the average number of cycle journeys per day made per person.

It shows a number of things: that cycling is very popular with school age children, for instance, and that it drops off a bit for working age adults as for some the commute is "too far" by bike. Males between 20 and 50 years of age cycle the least. This is because they're most likely to have a job requiring a long commute. Women follow a similar pattern, but there is a jump in cycling between "25 to 30" and "30 to 40" as this is the age at which women have children, and having children allows women to return to cycling. This first happens with children on their mother's bike and later with women accompanying their children on their own bike before at eight years old they are able to ride unaccompanied to school. Men don't get this chance so often so men cycle less.

This is due to women being more likely to be at home looking after children than their male partners. As a result, they more often cycle with young children to school, or make shopping and other utility trips by bike. This is what leads to the Netherlands uniquely having 55% of trips overall by women. Men cycle less on average than women because they are more likely than women to be making the longest commutes in Europe, and doing so by other means of transport.

Cycling stays with people through their entire life. Even the over 75s are predominantly still active. They make an average of around 0.3 trips per day by bike, or more than two trips each week.

The Dutch use their bikes for exactly the same purposes as people in other countries use their cars

Here we see the reasons for bicycle journeys. Only 16% of all cycle journeys are commutes. The largest percentage, 22%, are shopping trips, 18% are school journeys, 14% are social, and 11% are to go visiting.

This level of cycle usage, across both sexes, all ages, and for all purposes, requires infrastructure which has a high level of subjective safety.

But let's go back to that figure of just 16% of cycle journeys being for commutes. In all too many places, commuting rate figures are touted as "modal share". Actually, commutes make for just a small percentage of total journeys in any country, and that should be the case for cycling too. However, in many countries there is not the required subjective safety for everyone to cycle. In these countries, promoting cycling as just something for commuters and ignoring the other 84% of potential cycle journeys removes the need to make conditions suitable for everyone to cycle. This can never be the route to mass cycling on the scale that it is seen in the Netherlands.

I am not impressed with people touting "commuting" modal shares because they have missed out the big picture. What is important is that everyone should be able to make every type of journey by bike. We should be cautious of figures designed to impress which emphasize the easier demographics to attract to cycling - one of which is the confident young adult, often but not exclusively male, riding to work and back.

These figures came from the same source as last week's post, the Fietsersbond. Marc has also written about these statistics.

Bram's Mother's Bike

Bram Moens, of M5 ligfietsen, made his mother a new town bike over the Christmas holidays:

Inbetween Christmas/New Year job.......
January 14th, 2010

Super lightweight carbon city bike for Bram Moens' mother, because an
electric bike was not an option!

It's in the genes, that much is clear. Bram's mother is almost 84 en does around 6000 km all year round on the bicycle. Up till now she used an already lightweight custom-made bicycle with Cr-Mo Reynolds tubing.

So, the weight of this city bike was already little with approximately 12 kg, but starting and stopping it was a bit hard because of the relatively high positioned top tube. Therefore a full carbon lightweight bicycle with a much lower frame curve and obviously a lot of lightweight M5 components (hubs, brakes and rims) was made. The result is a remarkably rigid, smooth and lightweight (7.3 kg) carbon city bike with a 9 speed gear system. The crank is acquired from another recumbent builder in the USA (Lightning). Two carbon chain rims around the 42 toothed blade make sure the chain is kept perfectly in place.

The Dutch version of the article also mentions that a 250 gram extra light rear rack is being made for the bike. Hopefully she'll get mudguards too. These are all parts of what make up a practical bicycle for everyday use.

Cycling is for all demographic groups in the Netherlands. While Bram Moen's mother may be exceptional, Dutch people over 65 on average make a quarter of all their journeys by bicycle.

Please read more about elderly people cycling in the Netherlands and about cycling quickly in the Netherlands.

M5's usual products are fast recumbent bicycles, and very nice they are too

Electric bike demographics

Every so often someone asks me who buys electric bikes in the Netherlands. My usual answer is that they are bought by the elderly (Dutch over 65s make 24% of their journeys by bike) and by people with a disability who need a bit of assistance.

This short article appeared in the September issue of Tweewieler magazine. A magazine for the Dutch bike trade, which is distributed to bike shops.

The title of the article reads "Modern e-bike gets still younger buying public"

There was an online survey of 500 people organised by the Dutch "Halfords" chain of shops (I understand this is no longer connected with British "Halfords"). The survey produced such results as that 37% of correspondents said they wanted an electric bike to make cycling easier.

A representative of Halfords claims that the average buying age is creeping down to around 50, which is much lower than previously, when most were bought by 65+ers, but do bear in mind that he's a salesman.

An older assisted bicycle with a two stroke petrol motor (a snorfiets or low power moped) next to two newer e-bikes. All three are limited to 25 km/h. E-bikes are rapidly replacing the older snorfietsen of this type.

The article also mentions that they often see couples buying his and hers bikes together. This is something I've noticed in the past. Dutch couples who buy identical bikes at retirement so they can cycle together.

The two bikes in the photo on the right are near identical models which were probably bought by a couple. The bike on the left with the number plate is an older style of assisted bike with a petrol engine. These are also limited to 25 km/h, so they were bought by very much the same people as now buy electric bikes. Part of the growth in electric bike sales is due to these types of low power motor bike having been replaced by electric bikes.

Much has been made in some quarters of the number of electric bikes sold in the Netherlands. This article gives a figure of 5000 electric bikes sold in the country last year, with an expectation that this may have doubled to 10000 this year. Impressive growth, but still small numbers compared with the 1.3 million bikes sold per year in the Netherlands.

The reason for the high monetary value of electric bicycles is that when people buy electric bikes in the Netherlands they tend to buy expensive ones. Also, because it's quite common for older couples to buy identical "his and hers" pairs of bikes as in the photo, this in effect doubles the amount spent.

We sell parts for electric bikes in our webshop.

Cycling the world from home

The Times recently reported on a 67 year old Englishman, Mike Roots, who has been "cycling the world" from his exercise bicycle. Since 1996 he has covered 80000 miles.

He's not cycling it for real on the roads because they are "too dangerous."

It's a glimpse into the problems facing many people in the UK who would like to cycle, but do not. A feeling that the roads are too dangerous is not irrational, but quite understandable in a country where cyclists simply are not provided for.

This is perhaps a good example of a lack of subjective safety preventing someone from cycling.

What Mike is doing may seem strange, and some of the readers responses to the article are quite funny. However, I think it's good that Mike is raising the issue of subjective safety.

By way of contrast, Dutch people of pensionable age make a quarter of their journeys by bicycle.

Now for a real ride around the world... James Bowthorpe from London just took the world record for riding right around the world by bike. There's a TV interview here.

Thanks to the Crap Waltham Forest blog for the story.

Bikes for older people

In the Netherlands, older people are still active. The over 65s make 24% of their journeys by bicycle, not a very much smaller percentage than much younger people.

When you have a population which cycles right through life you need bikes available which suit all ages and fitnesses.

This is one of the designs that you occasionally see around the city.

It's not as upright as a normal Dutch utility bike, but has a lower saddle position so that you can get your feet flat on the ground. Ideal for people who have trouble on a "normal" bike.

Note that it has all the usual features of a practical bicycle including a chain case, skirt guard, mudguards (fenders), dynamo lights, kick stand, in-built lock and carrier rack.

A perfectly practical bike... but a little different.

Here's another bike designed to make it easy for people who can't lift their legs as they used to.

It has a very low step over frame which again makes it easier for a lot of people to get on their bike in the first place.

We sell many practical components for bicycles, including replacement handlebars and other items to improve comfort, in our web shop.

Cycling together

It's quite common in the Netherlands to see couples cycling along hand in hand. It's also quite common to see people who are retired cycling, and they hold hands too.

This couple are cycling into the city centre, along one of the main routes - a bicycle road along a canal on which cycles have priority over cars.

Matching bikes, matching jackets, still in love.

How many hours have they spent together on their bikes ?

How many kilometres travelled ?

How many wonderful experiences shared by bike ?

In the Netherlands, the over 65s make 24% of all their journeys by bicycle.

And... what road conditions are required to make this possible ? Just how much subjective safety does it take for people to keep people cycling for their entire lives, and to allow people to continue to cycle hand in hand in later stages of their lives ? This bicycle road is no longer a through route for cars, but it does allow through travel for bikes. The result is segregation of modes without a cycle path.